Joe Biden Leads in Major Polls
By Everton Prospere
Volume 1 Issue 1
November 1, 2020
Image provided by NBC News
As of October 28th, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a lead in major polls nationwide over incumbent, Donald Trump. Polls conducted by NBC, CNN, and Fox currently show that the Democratic nominee holds a seven to ten point lead nationwide as well as in key swing states.
In the battleground state of Florida, NBC news shows Biden holds the lead in seven polls, while the incumbent only holds the lead in one. Biden also holds the lead in all eight polls reported by NBC news in Pennsylvania, a state that historically is won by Democrats. However, in the 2016 election Pennsylvania was won by the Republican party. CNN reports that Joe Biden holds the lead in over 80 polls nationwide by an average of ten points, a historical lead in which only Bill Clinton held a higher poll lead in elections since 1968. (In comparison, Donald Trump holds the lead in no polls according to CNN, or none outside the poll’s margin of error). Fox news reports that the Democratic nominee holds a seven and a half point lead nationwide over the incumbent. In Georgia and Texas, states considered to be new to the battleground name that have historically voted Republican, Fox reports Joe Biden is catching up to Trump. In a recent Georgia poll Biden is tied with Trump, while in Texas, Trump maintains a four point lead. It should be noted that Georgia is historically known to go to the Republican Party.
While many voters question the accuracy of polls, David Wasserman of NBC news stated that “Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there’s no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor”. Therefore, the polls are unlikely to err in the incumbent’s favor. In addition, Biden’s lead is steady in comparison to Clinton’s lead in 2016, proving that there is a more likely chance that these polls will reflect an accurate outcome. However, news sites such as The Hill report that the polls are wrong for multiple reasons. Authors at The Hill state that the tone of the questions, the sample of respondents, and the distrust of polls among Trump supporters should be taken into account because they are factors that may cause a lack of understanding and the President could be re-elected.
Although there may be conflict regarding whether the polls are accurate, it is clear that Joe Biden currently has the lead by a large number. With that being said, all registered voters can exercise their voice in democracy, and only time will tell the actual outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election.